Fig. 3

Posterior densities derived from student-t modelling of LPS reactivity. SRC, sport-related concussion; Conc Hx, concussion history; LPS, lipopolysaccharide. Density plots show the posterior distributions for the latent cytokine variable of LPS reactivity across groups (SRC, red; Healthy, blue) (A–D). The grey lines represent the prior distributions for each group in each comparison. Panels E–H show the contrasts (difference in SRC – Healthy) for each of the 4 comparisons: The amount of posterior mass to the right of zero indicates the posterior probability that LPS reactivity is higher in SRC, while the amount of posterior mass to the left of zero indicates the posterior probability that LPS reactivity is lower in SRC. The red shading indicates which side of zero has more of the probability mass. For example, in panel E, most of the posterior mass is below zero, indicating that LPS reactivity is lower in athletes with SRC, while panel F has most of its posterior mass above zero, indicating that LPS reactivity is higher in SRC; these plots coincide with the distributions in A & B, respectively. Panels G & H are equivocal, and coincide with the distributions in C & D, respectively. Plots were derived from 2000 posterior draws