Fig. 4

Posterior densities derived from student-t modelling of R848 reactivity. SRC, sport-related concussion; Conc Hx, concussion history; R848, resiquimod. Density plots show the posterior distributions for the latent cytokine variable of R848 reactivity across groups (SRC, green; Healthy, blue) (A–D). The grey lines represent the prior distributions for each group in each comparison. Panels E–H show the contrasts (difference in SRC – Healthy) for each of the 4 comparisons: The amount of posterior mass to the right of zero indicates the posterior probability that R848 reactivity is higher in SRC, while the amount of posterior mass to the left of zero indicates the posterior probability that R848 reactivity is lower in SRC. The green shading indicates which side of zero has more of the probability mass. For example, in panel E, most of the posterior mass is below zero, indicating that R848 reactivity is lower in athletes with SRC, while panel F has most of its posterior mass above zero, indicating that R848 reactivity is higher in SRC; these plots coincide with the distributions in A & B, respectively. Panel G has most of its posterior mass above zero, indicating that R848 reactivity is higher in SRC, while Panel H is equivocal; these plots coincide with the distributions in C & D, respectively. Plots were derived from 2000 posterior draws